The future president of the Republic of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto and his vice-president, Gibran Rakabumi
Background
On February 14, 2024, general elections were held in Indonesia. The purpose of these elections was to elect not only the new President and Vice-President of the Republic of Indonesia, but also members of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR (1)) and the Council of Regional Representatives (DPR (2)).
A giant of Southeast Asia, Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country (after India, China and the USA respectively), with around 279 million inhabitants in 2024 (3). Its geography is related, with a territory stretching 2,000 kilometers from North to South and 5,000 kilometers from West to East.
The 2024 elections involved 204,807,222 registered voters, of whom 168,422,011 cast their votes (4) at the 823,287 polling stations. No fewer than 17,510 local representatives, 2,372 provincial representatives, 580 members of parliament and, of course, a president and vice-president were elected. It's worth noting that over half the electorate is under the age of 40, with a fairly recent political memory, which has an impact on the choice of a particular candidate.
Eighteen parties ran in national elections, but to be represented in the House they had to win at least 4% of the total national vote. In 2019, twenty parties stood for election, and only eight of them entered the House.
Turning here to the 2024 presidential elections, the result was clear-cut: in the first round, candidate Prabowo Subianto and his vice president Gibran Rakabuming were elected with 58.59% of the vote. Incumbent Joko Widodo is completing his second (and last) term in office this year, having been elected the first time in 2014 and the second in 2019.
The new president and vice-president will not take office until October 20, 2024, after being sworn in by the MPR.
Presidential candidates
As is done in Indonesia, the three presidential candidates presented themselves “as a ticket” with a vice president. A drawing of lots assigned a number to the pairs of candidates to make it easier for voters to distinguish. Ticket number 1 was that of Anies Baswedan / Muhaimin Iskandar; number 2, Prabowo Subianto / Gibran Rakabuming. Finally, number 3, Ganjar Pranowo / Mahfud MD.
On February 14, 2024, general elections were held in Indonesia. The purpose of these elections was to elect not only the new President and Vice-President of the Republic of Indonesia, but also members of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR (1)) and the Council of Regional Representatives (DPR (2)).
A giant of Southeast Asia, Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country (after India, China and the USA respectively), with around 279 million inhabitants in 2024 (3). Its geography is related, with a territory stretching 2,000 kilometers from North to South and 5,000 kilometers from West to East.
The 2024 elections involved 204,807,222 registered voters, of whom 168,422,011 cast their votes (4) at the 823,287 polling stations. No fewer than 17,510 local representatives, 2,372 provincial representatives, 580 members of parliament and, of course, a president and vice-president were elected. It's worth noting that over half the electorate is under the age of 40, with a fairly recent political memory, which has an impact on the choice of a particular candidate.
Eighteen parties ran in national elections, but to be represented in the House they had to win at least 4% of the total national vote. In 2019, twenty parties stood for election, and only eight of them entered the House.
Turning here to the 2024 presidential elections, the result was clear-cut: in the first round, candidate Prabowo Subianto and his vice president Gibran Rakabuming were elected with 58.59% of the vote. Incumbent Joko Widodo is completing his second (and last) term in office this year, having been elected the first time in 2014 and the second in 2019.
The new president and vice-president will not take office until October 20, 2024, after being sworn in by the MPR.
Presidential candidates
As is done in Indonesia, the three presidential candidates presented themselves “as a ticket” with a vice president. A drawing of lots assigned a number to the pairs of candidates to make it easier for voters to distinguish. Ticket number 1 was that of Anies Baswedan / Muhaimin Iskandar; number 2, Prabowo Subianto / Gibran Rakabuming. Finally, number 3, Ganjar Pranowo / Mahfud MD.
There is no real right/left divide in Indonesian politics. Thus, political parties assert themselves more or less based on three elements: the national cursor, the social cursor and the Islamic cursor. But what matters above all in Indonesian politics is compromise (5) and coalitions of interests.
Presidential candidate Anies Baswedan, 56, who focused primarily on the Islamic agenda and secondarily on social issues and justice, obtained 24.89%. Governor of Jakarta from 2017 to 2022, he is an intellectual and a recognized academic, holding a doctorate in political science (2005) at Northern Illinois University. He was the youngest Indonesian university rector at 37 years old (Paramadina Universitas, Jakarta). Note that he was Minister of Culture and Education from 2014 to 2016. However, a brilliant academic does not necessarily make a good politician and especially a good presidential candidate. Thus, despite his qualities, Anies, having capitalized above all on the “Islamic” vote, repelled the majority of the electorate who looked with suspicion at his conservative Muslim entourage and his possible “hidden Islamic agenda”. Some have pointed out that he was also the candidate of globalist ideology and the market economy; the fact is that he is one of those happy few to have been noticed by the World Economic Forum in Davos and was even invited there. He is also a Young Global Leader (6).
Ganjar Pranowo, 55, who was governor of Central Java from 2013 to 2023, was also a deputy (2004-2013) for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). Entering politics in the early 1990s under Suharto's New Order (Orde Baru) regime, he was active in the Indonesian National Student Movement (GMNI). It should be noted that his political party, the PDI-P, has very good relations with China and Russia. During his electoral campaign, Ganjar emphasized modernity. He was the “young” candidate, very present on social networks, promoting his image of a tall and smiling “handsome man” as well as his acting to seduce his electorate. Its political consistency was quite limited and communication was not everything, it only received 16.47% of the votes. Rumors circulated about him, according to which he was rather supported by the European Union.
The future president and his vice-president
Prabowo Subianto, 72, was a Lieutenant General in the Indonesian Army (TNI). After leaving the Military Academy in 1974, he went through all the elite units of the TNI (paratroopers, special forces) and rose through all the ranks. He led, among other prestigious units, the Special Forces Command (Kopassus), in 1996 and two years later, the Strategic Reserves Command (KoStrAD).
Prabowo, having left the army in 1998 due to accusations of human rights abuses, became a businessman and outgoing defense minister (2019-2024). He is the son-in-law of former autocrat Suharto; he separated from his wife shortly after the fall of his father-in-law. Entering politics in 2004, he has since continued to pursue his dream of becoming president of the country. He co-founded the Gerindra Party (Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya) in 2008, and as chairman of that party (since 2014), he made two unsuccessful bids for the presidency in 2014 and 2019.
An interesting point concerning him concerns his relations with Washington and the American army. During Soharto's time, Prabowo visited the United States on numerous occasions to train and improve his skills, notably at Fort Bragg (State of North Carolina, today Fort Liberty) and Fort Benning (State of Georgia, now Fort Moore) to guerrilla, intelligence, counterinsurgency and special forces techniques. But, while he was still in the army, at the end of his career, the brutal repression of students in 1998 (Trisakti Universitas, Jakarta) and the disappearance of a number of them was directly attributed to him. For this reason, he was dismissed from his position for insubordination. This is also why he was banned from entering the United States, while maintaining close links, it is said, with the DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency). Over the past ten years, he has returned to favor in Washington and during his electoral campaign, Prabowo visited the United States again. If critics argued that he was « the man from Washington », others said that he had rather kept a grudge against the United States and that his smiles towards the « flagship country of democracy » (7) were in fact just a facade. Wanting to benefit from the moral and financial support of the American giant, he have maybe patted on the back Washington but once in power, Prabowo intends to pursue an independent and nationalist policy, therefore outside the American yoke.
It should be noted that in June 2023, invited during the “Shangri-La Dialogue” in Singapore as Minister of Defense, Prabowo Subianto, presented “his” peace plan on the subject of the war between Russia and Ukraine (8). A peace plan not exactly in the globalist Zeitgeist. Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi quickly disavowed the move, saying the proposal was not the official position of the Indonesian government but was a « personal initiative. » Furthermore, the content of his proposal led the then Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Oleksii Reznikov - present at this famous "Shangri-La Dialogue" - to categorically reject this peace proposal, declaring that « it sounds like a Russian plan, not Indonesian plan (...) We do not need this mediator, how it was suggested by this strange plan. Thank you » he added, curbing his remarks (9).
« A country's defense in the 21st century is determined by science and technology. The Indonesian nation must seize science and technology »
Prabowo Subianto, quoted in his official program. |
The vice-presidential candidate alongside Prabowo, Gibran Rakabuming, is none other than the son of current President Joko Widodo; Gibran is also the eldest of his three children. He is a very young politician; he is just 36 years old. His candidacy was the subject of controversy since he was under the required age of forty to run. However, through his father, the current president, and the Constitutional Court (Gibran's uncle, Anwar Usman, is its president), the General Elections Act was amended and the minimum legal age for voting was changed and now it is no longer 40 years old. In fact, on October 16, 2023, the Constitutional Court, by decision No. 90/PUU-XXI/2023, confirmed the revision of the provisions of article 169 letter q regarding the requirements concerning the president and the vice-president in the general election. Thus, from now on, candidates for president and vice-president must be at least 40 years old... or « currently occupy a position elected in general elections or elections of regional leaders, - notably in the DPR (the House of Representatives), the DPD (the Regional Representative Council), the DPRD (the Regional House of Representatives) - or governor or even mayor/regent ». Gibran was thus able to launch into the campaign.
Gibran did his studies partly in Singapore, notably secondary school. In 2010, he graduated from the Management Development Institute of Singapore (MDIS), with a degree in marketing from the University of Bradford (UK). Between 2010 and 2020, Gibran was in business, having established and led several successful companies in the restaurant and service industry. In 2020, he entered politics, running under the PDI-P label (his father's political party) for the post of mayor of Solo-Surarkarta (on the island of Java), elections which he won masterfully . It was at that moment that the idea of positioning himself as a vice-presidential candidate emerged despite his young age.
As mayor of Solo, Gibran showed undeniable talents. On many points, such as quality of life, economic development and services, there were successes. Solo has thus stood out from many other cities of the same size, increasing its social and economic appeal. Gibran has, among other things, implemented, via the WhatsApp application, a possibility of directly questioning the mayor when municipal services were found to be failing or missing by those administered. It was not a gimmick because, on numerous occasions, when challenged on this or that point, Gibran intervened immediately and personally to remedy the various problems.
The program
In the « Vision & Mission » (Visi dan Misi) manifesto of the winning protagonists, Prabowo and Gibran put forward no less than seventeen priority programs. From food self-sufficiency, to the improvement of the state revenue system, to a policy of political, legal and bureaucratic reform, to the prevention and eradication of corruption, poverty, Drugs ; from the development of health services and their proximity, to a policy in favor of farmers and the preservation of the environment; from a housing policy to infrastructure development, from an industrial development policy to support for SMEs; finally, a policy of strengthening and defending the national ideology, Pancasila, the five principles founding the Indonesian Republic.
Among the eight immediate actions planned, we note a few: « organizing free health checks, reducing tuberculosis cases by 50% in five years and building a quality comprehensive hospital in each district. » Priority to agriculture at the village, regional and national level. Increasing the salaries of teachers, police and the military. The creation of a National Revenue Agency and the increase in the ratio of public revenue to gross domestic product (GDP) by 23%.
In summary, in addition to remaining in continuity with the government currently in office, the program put forward by the future president is however clearly more nationalist, social, traditionalist and conservative, oriented towards modernity and youth. This last point is not trivial since Indonesia is experiencing strong demographic vitality and foreign investors have not failed in recent years to also note Indonesia's other significant assets, making the archipelago a country on which we will increasingly have to rely, not only on a regional but global level: significant geographical space, geostrategic location, significant energy, agricultural, mining and fishery resources, increase in the average level of education.
Outlook
Prabowo Subianto will have an uphill task to stay on course and implement his program. In addition to the foreign influences that it will have to face and avoid in order to lead and maintain Indonesia on the path to independence and maintain its traditional "free and active" foreign policy (Bebas dan aktif) (10), the efforts of Prabowo will also and above all have to focus on his ability to unite with parties that are not currently aligned with him; one of these means will lie in the way he will distribute ministerial posts. The most difficult political party to circumvent will undoubtedly be the PDI-P, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, well represented in parliament (MPR and DPR). The stability of the next administration will thus depend on Prabowo's ability to manage the competing interests of the parties in and around his coalition.
A question that arises with this new presidency will also be Indonesia's attitude towards BRICS. If the archipelago has a legitimate vocation to integrate this rapidly expanding group of countries, if it is fully aware of its pivotal role, the fact remains that Indonesia has always refused the logic of blocs. This is the reason why Prabowo remains rather cautious until now - like the current President Jokowi - about joining the BRICS+, even though this grouping of countries is viewed in Jakarta rather with a priori sympathy. During the 15th BRICS summit held in Johannesburg from August 22 to 24, 2023, Joko Widodo's remarks were widely noted. Despite his status as a guest (not a member of the BRICS organization), Jokowi made it clear that he was not there as a spectator; he not only affirmed the leading role of his country and the place it wants to hold in these international meetings, but he also recalled Indonesia's conception of international relations (11).
Indonesia, in its international political tradition of neutrality and independence - we remember that the conference of future non-aligned countries was held in Bandung in 1955, at the initiative of Indonesian President Sukarno - does not want under any circumstances enter into a coalition which would be constituted or established “against” another existing one, whatever it may be. But if this grouping of countries, among the most important in the world - the BRICS+ - maintains in the medium term its apoliticism and its neutrality (non-interference in the internal affairs of its members), focusing solely on the development of economic relations and the implementation establishment of a new international financial organization outside the American hegemon (outside the SWIFT system and in a process of dedollarization of trade), then Indonesia could integrate the BRICS, becoming one of the major countries of this intergovernmental organization.
« Having a thousand friends is not enough, while having one enemy is one too many, » declared Prabowo Subianto at the Istora Sports stadium in Jakarta on January 7, 2024 (12).
NOTES:
1) MPR: Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat - Republik Indonesia
2) DPR: Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat - Republik Indonesia
3) The last census gave, as of April 30, 2023, the figure of 279,118,866 inhabitants. Source: Indonesian Ministry of Interior, General Directorate of Population and Civil Registration (see: https://dukcapil.kemendagri.go.id/page/read/data-kependudukan).
4) The participation rate was 82.23%; as for blank and invalid votes, they totaled 2.49%.
5) This is the traditional Indonesian notion of Gotong-royong.
6) See it appears on the WEF website listing the Young Global Leaders:
https://www.weforum.org/communities/ygl-alumni/
7) In the words of Samuel Huntington.
8) You can read the entire text of Prabowo’s declaration on the Shangri-La Dialogue 2023 website:
https://www.iiss.org/events/shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2023/third-plenary/
9) You can read the full response from the Ukrainian Defense Minister on the Shangri-La Dialogue 2023 website:
https://www.iiss.org/events/shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2023/special-sessions/
10) This typically Indonesian approach to international relations was originally formulated on September 2, 1948 by one of the leading figures of the Republic of Indonesia, the first Prime Minister of the archipelago, Mohammed Hatta, during a meeting of the KNIP (Komite Nasional Indonesia Pusat) the Central Indonesian National Committee.
11) « My presence here is not only that of the leader of Indonesia, but also that of the co-leader of the Global South, which represents 85% of the world's population and who wants a win-win solution, » he declared.
See :
https://www.thejakartapost.com/paper/2023/08/29/brics-temptation-and-ris-free-and-active-foreign-policy.html
12) See the article published in the Jakarta Globe, entitled « Prabowo Pledges to Uphold Indonesia’s Non-Aligned Position in Global Politics » :
https://jakartaglobe.id/news/prabowo-pledges-to-uphold-indonesias-nonaligned-position-in-global-politics
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